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Mood of the Nation poll: If elections were held today

By FnF Correspondent | PUBLISHED: 27, Jan 2019, 8:40 am IST | UPDATED: 27, Jan 2019, 8:40 am IST

Mood of the Nation poll: If elections were held today

Delhi: Just a year-and-a-half ago, Narendra Modi's re-election as prime minister was considered a given. Now, it is no more a certainty.

Instead, Modi is aware that every vote, including that of NRIs (apart from the money they could donate for the party), counts. Forget the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) repeating its feat of winning a majority on its own as it did in 2014, it is far from certain that even the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) can cross the 272 mark in Parliament.

That is the stunning conclusion of the India Today Group-Karvy Insights biannual Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey conducted between December 28, 2018, and January 8, 2019.
 
This MOTN is significant as it comes barely four months before the general election. Also because it is the first time since Modi came to power in May 2014 that an MOTN poll is predicting that the NDA will not cross the majority mark.

It confirms the declining trend in its fortunes that these surveys have recorded in the past two years with the NDA and the BJP progressively losing ground.

SO, WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS?

The January 2019 MOTN predicts that if an election were held now, the NDA tally would drop by nearly a 100 seats -- from the 336 seats it got in the 2014 election to 237 -- 35 short of a majority.

This, if you take the following to be the composition of the NDA: BJP, All India N. Rangaswamy Congress, Apna Dal, Bodo People's Front, DMDK, JD(U), LJP, Naga People's Front, PMK, National People's Party, RPI(A), SAD, Sikkim Democratic Front and Shiv Sena.

The BJP would be the single largest loser in the NDA alliance with the number of seats dropping by as much as 80 -- from 282 in 2014 to 202 now. In such an eventuality, the NDA would have to scout for other partners to garner a majority.

There could also be doubts about Narendra Modi emerging as the consensus candidate to head a coalition government.

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