The Karnataka election 2023 have been a decisive moment for Congress as it bolsters a victory after Himachal Pradesh and after many a failed elections after 2018. This victory raises confidence in its cadres as much as it establishes the fact that the grand old party with the younger blood and leadership at its helm which has repeatedly been dismissed as immature, naive and even 'Pappu' can bounce back if it works hard, connects directly with people and offers positive things as compared to communal agendas and brand Modi.
It also seems to have the potential of a significant turning point in Indian politics as reflective of the factors that may contribute to the shift in fortunes for both parties, if its not too early to tell. Many factors contribute as key elements that are reasons behind Congress party's resurgence and the BJP's declining popularity in Karnataka. A 132 to 64 was surely reason to celebrate for the dying Congress. Many things contributed.
Campaign Strategies and Messaging After having missed right approach to many state sensibilities Congress party's success in the Karnataka election can be attributed, in part, to its effective campaign strategies and messaging. A year long ground level exercise by the state leaders and workers zeroed in at the basic everyday needs of the people who were fed up with communal divide being highlighted in speech after speech by incumbents, even the Prime Minister. So for people suffering from rampant corruption, inflation and lack of governance, monthly allowance to housewives and unemployed and free gas cylinders promised better life. The party focused on highlighting local issues, addressing concerns of farmers, and promising inclusive governance. By emphasizing these aspects, the Congress party managed to strike a chord with the electorate, particularly in rural areas. Additionally, the party's strong ground-level organizational structure and mobilization efforts contributed to its electoral gains.
On the other hand, the BJP's campaign was marred by internal conflicts, lack of coherent messaging, and an overemphasis on national-level issues. The party's failure to effectively address local concerns and connect with voters at the grassroots level coupled with the misgovernance and high handedness of the Bommai Yeddurappa duo played a significant role in bringing its denoument.
Voter Sentiment and Anti-Incumbency As is generally the trend anti-incumbency sentiment played a crucial role in BJP's loosing a major chunk of its vote share in Karnataka. After being in power for several years, the electorate expressed dissatisfaction with the party's governance, including issues related to unemployment, economic slowdown, and lack of progress on key developmental projects. This sentiment, combined with perceptions of arrogance and complacency within the BJP, contributed to a loss of voter trust and support.
Simultaneously, the Congress party capitalized on this anti-incumbency wave by presenting itself as a viable alternative. Rahul Gandhi persistantly harped on the 40% commission wali sarkar promising to give a clean govt if brought to power, sunk in with people. It effectively tapped into the discontent among voters and positioned itself as a party committed to addressing their concerns. Congress party's ability to project a credible leadership and offer a compelling vision for Karnataka resonated with voters which led to the huge its electoral gains.
Regional Factors and Coalition Dynamics Regional factors and caste dynamics in Karnataka are as strong as in any other state in India and thats where the trick of calculations played a major role in which the BJP is pretty deft. This time Congress was smart and faster in managing both on ground. Both DK Shivkumar and Siddaramaiah managed the Vokalingas and Lingayats early in the game. The next was to manage the coalition aspect with regional straps particularly JD(S). That shaped the entire Congress victory. It was open to forming early allainces with regional parties. The ability to forge such alliances and present a united front against the BJP gave them the much needed electroral victory.
Conversely, the BJP's attempts to consolidate power by pursuing a "one-party rule" approach led to the alienation of potential coalition partners. The party's inability to form a cohesive alliance and accommodate regional aspirations worked against its electoral prospects. PM Modi having addressed more than a dozen rallies in a month was the best foot that BJP could put forward as he is their most potent bet. But this time his charisma failed to impress the people of Karnataka. The communal polarisation card along with nationalistic pride narrative clearly were'nt bought by the people here.
Governance Performance and Policy Implementation BJP's declining popularity in Karnataka can also be attributed to its governance performance and policy implementation. The party faced criticism for its handling of key issues such as corruption, commissions, inflation, inefficient governance, lack of accountability, management of the COVID-19 pandemic, infrastructure development and agrarian distress. Perceived shortcomings in these areas eroded public confidence in BJP's ability to effectively govern thereby contributing to its downfall and the deep urge to bring change.
The Congress party effectively capitalized on the BJP's governance failures and showcased its own vision for good governance. The party's promises of inclusive policies, welfare programs and improved service delivery resonated with voters who were disillusioned with BJP's performance.
A few months to go and three major states are staring at crucial elections that have the forbodings of the times to come. Chattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh hold the key to Congress's future and BJP's chances of a 2024.
Factors such as effective campaign strategies, voter sentiment, regional dynamics, and governance performance play crucial roles in shaping the electoral outcome. If the Congress party wants to repeat a Karnataka, it will have to address the issue of firstly the infighting within the state leadership which is already becoming a source of embarrassment for it, will have to micro manage its ground level orgaisational structure where its opponent has a clear edge, and the seriousness it takes its eelctions with. Its time, the dividends of Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra should be cashed upon at its optimum as the people are yet soaked in the sentiment that he left behind, which has played its part in Karnataka well.
