ABP Exit Poll: NDA helmed by Modi set to do an encore with 277 seats

By FnF Correspondent | PUBLISHED: 20, May 2019, 19:49 pm IST | UPDATED: 20, May 2019, 19:49 pm IST

DELHI: The Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is all set to return to power winning 277 seats in Lok Sabha elections, five seats above the majority mark, according to an exit poll conducted by ABP News-Nielsen on Sunday. The Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) could win 130 seats while other regional/non-aligned parties are tipped to win 135 seats.

ABP News Exit Poll - Overall seat projections for BJP and Congress across India for 2019 Lok Sabha polls

The exit poll shows that the BJP is expected to win 227 seats, a 30 per cent decline over 2014, while the Congress is seen bagging 87 seats (almost a 200 per cent jump). The saffron party had won an absolute majority by grabbing 282 seats on its own the 2014 general polls while the Congress routed by the Modi wave had slumped to 44 seats.

ABP News Exit Poll - Total vote share projections of major political blocks in 2019 Lok Sabha polls

In terms of vote share, the exit poll predicts 39 per cent votes to the NDA, followed by 26 per cent votes to the UPA. Others account for 35 per cent vote share.

The exit poll predicted that the Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal’s Mahagathbandhan will emerge as the third largest force in the 17th Lok Sabha with 45 seats.

The biggest loss the BJP has suffered is in India's largest state - Uttar Pradesh. The exit poll has found that it will win only 33 seats in the state where it had it grabbed a massive 71 in the previous elections. The forging of a grand alliance has borne fruit in UP which sends 80 parliamentarians to the Lower House. The SP-BSP-RLD Mahagathbandhan may snap up 45 seats in total. Congress may win two seats here.

The projections show Priyanka factor has failed to reap any benefits to the grand old party in the country’s most politically crucial state.

The saffron party is tipped to win 19 seats in Rajasthan, a state where Congress wrested control in the assembly elections. Congress is likely to win six seats here.

In Bihar, the exit poll has predicted an overwhelming majority for the NDA. The NDA is likely to register a victory on 34 Lok Sabha seats. The grand alliance of Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and others may just manage to get the remaining six seats. The strong showings in Bihar could place the NDA in a dominating position to form a government at the Centre.

Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress may suffer heavy losses in the key battle ground West Bengal, according to the ABP News-Nielsen forecast. It is predicted may get 24 seats. It had won 34 in 2014 polls. Massive gains are projected for the BJP here with 16 seats. Left may not open account. Chief minister Mamata Banerjee dismissed the projections, saying the exit polls were part of a “larger conspiracy”.

The BJP-Shiv Sena combine, which had won 43 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra in 2014, is expected to win 34 Lok Sabha seats now. Congress-led UPA alliance is likely to win 14 seats in the state.

The gains in Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal states will help the BJP in making make up for what it lost in Uttar Pradesh. The exit poll has found that the Congress has not benefited much from its victories in three big Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh last December. The Opposition parties have dismissed the exit polls and wait for the actual count.