Bihar reservation politics: Will caste census influence voter choices in upcoming polls

Bihar released the results of a historic caste-based survey in October 2023, mapping the state’s demographic and economic landscape. This comprehensive exercise counted all castes for the first time since independence and revealed vital data about economic status, education, and social composition.

The survey revealed that Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) constitute 36 per cent and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) 27 per cent of Bihar’s 13.07 crore population. Together, OBCs and EBCs make up 63 per cent of the population.

What are the political implications?

Reservation and electoral mobilisation

The overwhelming majority of OBCs, EBCs, and SCs as revealed by the census is prompting renewed demands for increased reservation and targeted welfare schemes. Political parties are recalibrating strategies to appeal to these voter blocs. The data challenges the political dominance of forward castes and shifts focus toward backward and marginalized groups.

Parties such as JD(U), RJD, and Congress have historically campaigned on social justice platforms. They are poised to use the census to seek higher quotas for OBCs and EBCs, placing reservation at the center of their manifesto.

BJP and its allies have responded by supporting enumeration and promising just representation, but face pressure to address the economic deprivation of backward groups highlighted by the data.

Voter choices in upcoming polls

The census is likely to make caste identity and socioeconomic status primary factors in voter decision-making. Marginalised castes may vote strategically for parties promising better representation, welfare, and increased reservations.

The traditional arithmetic of coalition-building- long dependent on caste alliances- may witness new alignments, with OBC and EBC sections demanding a bigger share in power and resources.

The report's timing- just before a major election- ensures parties cannot ignore its findings. Voters, armed with concrete data about their social status, are more likely to demand targeted benefits and policies, transforming Bihar’s electoral narrative.

The Bihar caste census has reconfirmed backward and marginalised groups as the numerical majority, reshaping the reservation debate and intensifying their influence in the upcoming elections. With demands for new reservation policies and targeted welfare on the rise, political parties are likely to witness a strategic shift in voter preferences and coalition formulae across the state.